Astronomers predict that the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket launched in early 2025 will collide with the Moon on August 5, around 2:44 am ET. The impact is expected to occur on the near side of the Moon.
The Falcon 9 rocket's upper stage measures 13.8 meters tall and 3.7 meters in diameter. Since the Moon has no atmosphere, it will strike the lunar surface intact.
Although the Moon will be visible from parts of North America and South America, astronomers believe the impact will likely be too faint to be seen by Earth-based telescopes.
The upper stage is confirmed to be the second stage of the Falcon 9 rocket that launched two lunar landers, Firefly's Blue Ghost and ispace's Hakuto-R, on January 15, 2025. The landers reached the Moon, with only Blue Ghost successfully landing.
Astronomer Bill Gray has published a comprehensive report on the expected impact, based on tracking data from the launch and subsequent orbits of the upper stage.