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Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan has spent his first year schmoozing rather than restructuring, securing deals with Apple and Tesla, and locking in a sweetheart deal with the U.S. government.

The company's stock has risen 490% over the past year, a bet by Wall Street that may be running ahead of Intel's actual turnaround.

Despite messy fundamentals, including lagging chip yields compared to industry leader TSMC, investors are betting big on Tan's bigger picture plans.

The multibillion-dollar question is whether execution follows the vision.